A LO MEJOR RESULTA que es cierto que Irán necesita un programa nuclear para producir energía, y no para fabricar bombas atómicas: según un estudio de la Academia Nacional de las Ciencias de EEUU, el país se encuentra inmerso en una crisis energética de consecuencias imprevisibles:

Iran's oil exports are plummeting at 10pc a year on lack of investment and could be exhausted within a decade, depriving the world economy of its second-biggest source of crude supplies.



A report by the US National Academy of Sciences said rickety infrastructure dating back to the era of the Shah had crippled output, while local fuel use was rising at 6pc a year.





"Their domestic demand is growing at the highest rate of any country in the world," said Prof Roger Stern, an Iran expert at Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore.



"They need to invest $2.5bn (£1.28bn) a year just to stand still and they're not doing it because it's politically easier to spend the money on social welfare and the army than to wait four to six years for a return on investment," he said.



"They've been running down the industry like this for 20 years."



Prof Stern said Teheran faces impending disaster since it relies on oil revenues for 70pc of its budget.

Eso significa, de entrada, que la amenaza de 'cerrar el grifo' si se imponen sanciones internacionales es una amenaza absolutamente hueca. Iran necesita exportar petróleo. Por cierto que algo poco sabido es que Irán, a pesar de exportar petróleo, lleva décadas importando prácticamente toda la gasolina que necesita. Sencillamente porque carece de la capacidad industrial para hacerlo.



Si os interesa, el informe completo de la Academia está aquí.